Peer-Reviewed Articles
2022. Does the Monetary Cost of Abstaining Increase Turnout? Causal Evidence from Peru. Electoral Studies, 75 (with German Feierherd and Gerson Julcarima-Alvarez).
[Report for the Peruvian Electoral Commission]
2015. Who Wants an Independent Court? Political Competition and Supreme Court Autonomy in the Argentine Provinces, 1984-2008. The Journal of Politics, 77 (1) (with Marcelo Leiras and Agustina Giraudy).
[Report for the Peruvian Electoral Commission]
2015. Who Wants an Independent Court? Political Competition and Supreme Court Autonomy in the Argentine Provinces, 1984-2008. The Journal of Politics, 77 (1) (with Marcelo Leiras and Agustina Giraudy).
Other Publications
2015. Graphical Presentation of Regression Discontinuity Results (with Natália S. Bueno). The Political Methodologist, blog and print newsletter.
Working Papers
"When the Church Votes Left: How Progressive Bishops Helped to Build the Workers' Party in Brazil"
Winner of the Mancur Olson Prize for the best dissertation in political economy, APSA 2020
Winner of the Aaron Wildavsky Award for the best dissertation on religion and politics, APSA 2020
A long tradition in the social sciences characterizes religion's influence in electoral politics as conservative and left-wing parties as fundamentally secular. Contrary to both these claims, this paper shows that the presence of progressive Catholic bishops---who actively supported state-led redistribution---was crucial in mobilizing poor voters in favor of the left-wing Workers' Party (PT) in Brazil. The paper draws on a natural experiment stemming from Pope John Paul II's appointment to the papacy in 1978, which generated plausibly as-if random variation in the length of progressive bishops' tenure in office. I find that the party's electoral performance increased in municipalities with longer exposure to progressive bishops. This effect can be explained by the PT's access to religious networks, which allowed the party to build local organizational structures. The findings highlight the importance of understanding how religious leaders' economic preferences shape the rise of left parties. They have important implications for theories of political party development and religion's political influence.
"Placebo Tests for Causal Inference" (with Andy Eggers and Allan Dafoe). Revise and Resubmit.
Placebo tests allow researchers to probe the soundness of a research design by checking for an association that might be present if the study is flawed but should be absent otherwise. Despite the growing popularity of placebo tests, the principles for designing and interpreting them have remained obscure. Drawing on a comprehensive survey of recent empirical work in political science, we define placebo tests, introduce a typology of tests, and analyze what makes them informative. We consider examples of each type of test and discuss how to design and evaluate tests for specific research designs. In sum, we offer a guide to understanding and using placebo tests to improve causal inference.
Winner of the Mancur Olson Prize for the best dissertation in political economy, APSA 2020
Winner of the Aaron Wildavsky Award for the best dissertation on religion and politics, APSA 2020
A long tradition in the social sciences characterizes religion's influence in electoral politics as conservative and left-wing parties as fundamentally secular. Contrary to both these claims, this paper shows that the presence of progressive Catholic bishops---who actively supported state-led redistribution---was crucial in mobilizing poor voters in favor of the left-wing Workers' Party (PT) in Brazil. The paper draws on a natural experiment stemming from Pope John Paul II's appointment to the papacy in 1978, which generated plausibly as-if random variation in the length of progressive bishops' tenure in office. I find that the party's electoral performance increased in municipalities with longer exposure to progressive bishops. This effect can be explained by the PT's access to religious networks, which allowed the party to build local organizational structures. The findings highlight the importance of understanding how religious leaders' economic preferences shape the rise of left parties. They have important implications for theories of political party development and religion's political influence.
"Placebo Tests for Causal Inference" (with Andy Eggers and Allan Dafoe). Revise and Resubmit.
Placebo tests allow researchers to probe the soundness of a research design by checking for an association that might be present if the study is flawed but should be absent otherwise. Despite the growing popularity of placebo tests, the principles for designing and interpreting them have remained obscure. Drawing on a comprehensive survey of recent empirical work in political science, we define placebo tests, introduce a typology of tests, and analyze what makes them informative. We consider examples of each type of test and discuss how to design and evaluate tests for specific research designs. In sum, we offer a guide to understanding and using placebo tests to improve causal inference.
"Religious Minorities and the Costs of Secularization: Theory and Evidence from Brazil"
"Is Paying Taxes Habit Forming? Theory and Evidence from Uruguay" with Thad Dunning, Felipe Monestier, Rafael Piñeiro and Fernando Rosenblatt.
Work in Progress
The Effects of Homeownership on Political Participation (with Craig McIntosh, Felipe Monestier, Rafael Piñeiro and Fernando Rosenblatt).