When the Church Votes Left: The Electoral Consequences of Progressive Religion
My book project is a theoretical and empirical investigation of how religious ideas about politics shape the policy goals of church leaders and their interactions with political parties. Most research on religion's electoral influence suggests individual voters' religiosity reduces demands for economic redistribution. Focusing instead on the role of religious leaders and the influence they exert over their congregations, I argue that the effect of religion on electoral and policy outcomes depends on leaders' doctrinal beliefs. Indeed, when religious leaders advance progressive economic doctrines, they may form alliances with left parties and increase support for redistribution.
Drawing on models of distributive and special-interest politics, I develop a theory of religious leader influence that illustrates how leaders' policy preferences affect their participation in the electoral arena, the strategic responses of political parties, and the types of alliances that eventually form between these two actors. When a large fraction of the population is religious and church leaders prefer higher levels of economic redistribution, parties on the left face incentives to collaborate with these leaders in order to court their congregations. However, religious leaders will only mobilize followers if supporting the left will not jeopardize their preferences on the moral dimensions of policy. Thus, while cooperation with religious organizations may increase left-wing parties' electoral support, it will come at the cost of moral conservatism. In an empirical paper that is part of this project, I study a novel natural experiment based on the internal rules that govern the administrative structure of the Catholic Church in Brazil. These rules provide exogenous variation in the doctrinal inclinations of the bishops that lead each diocese, allowing me to overcome the major problem of endogeneity of religious ideas. My analysis of original archival data from Brazil supports my claims. I find that support from the Church boosted the vote share of the left but also led to moderation on social issues: in progressive dioceses, the left party decreased the promotion of women candidates and marginalized policies promoted by feminist groups. In my book project I further assess my theory by comparing the case of Brazil to Italy and the United States, where alliances between the left and progressive religious leaders have largely been unsuccessful.
Read more about the book here.
Drawing on models of distributive and special-interest politics, I develop a theory of religious leader influence that illustrates how leaders' policy preferences affect their participation in the electoral arena, the strategic responses of political parties, and the types of alliances that eventually form between these two actors. When a large fraction of the population is religious and church leaders prefer higher levels of economic redistribution, parties on the left face incentives to collaborate with these leaders in order to court their congregations. However, religious leaders will only mobilize followers if supporting the left will not jeopardize their preferences on the moral dimensions of policy. Thus, while cooperation with religious organizations may increase left-wing parties' electoral support, it will come at the cost of moral conservatism. In an empirical paper that is part of this project, I study a novel natural experiment based on the internal rules that govern the administrative structure of the Catholic Church in Brazil. These rules provide exogenous variation in the doctrinal inclinations of the bishops that lead each diocese, allowing me to overcome the major problem of endogeneity of religious ideas. My analysis of original archival data from Brazil supports my claims. I find that support from the Church boosted the vote share of the left but also led to moderation on social issues: in progressive dioceses, the left party decreased the promotion of women candidates and marginalized policies promoted by feminist groups. In my book project I further assess my theory by comparing the case of Brazil to Italy and the United States, where alliances between the left and progressive religious leaders have largely been unsuccessful.
Read more about the book here.
Header photo: Prelates gather at the Vatican June 29, 2018.
(CNS photo/Paul Haring)
(CNS photo/Paul Haring)